Trading Journal – 25th October

DXZ18 – the US dollar index has broken through 96 briefly and might hold above but in the very short term is drifting back below. All the risk off signals are strong at the moment (bonds up in price, equities down, everything except for precious metals. The previous high was 96.48 after which it retraced all the way back to 94, so we are not there yet.

GCZ18 – I’m paying the price for adding leverage too early. I would be $10 in the money if I had just sat on my one initial unit and accepted the only add once I am 3% in the money rule. Equivalent to adding at 1264.

KCZ18 – very negative signal on coffee and I’m getting more confident this long term downtrend is going to resume. I could be wrong as the price is still above the 200 DMA but this provides a good risk reward ratio, assuming I am targeting 100 on the downside and risking to 125 on the upside. If I can get short at 122 or 123 that would be great.

ZWZ18 – wheat is looking weak at the bottom of the range and idea trading right down at the low from the 13th of September. Pre-trade I would have thought the lows would be around 505 so this is disappointing. It’s been a straight line down since 15th October. There’s no clear trend dominating in the short term. The range is dominating. Top of the current range is 525. Bottom of the range is 495. How to manage the trade from here? I wpuld expect the recent lows from September to hold but the question is: how to avoid getting stopped out? Nothing I can do about that except deciding where to put my stop. So where makes sense? Probably 494. If I’m already past my mental expectation of where the price would go clearly I did two things wrong. Guessed the smaller range would hold and secondly didn’t put a framework around that.

CCZ18 – Cocoa also looking negative. A very negative outcome if you consider the price was up at 2228.

SBH19 – the US dollar strength is apparently not putting pressure on sugar, even though there was some upper tail on the most recent candle, the price moved strongly higher. It is already through the 200 DMA (13.06) by more than 6% (13.84) which is the most a false break will typically penetrate by and I’m also impressed by the slow and steady manner of the rise. Often a price which penetrates this far often goes on another 10-15% over the coming 90 days.

HGZ18 – if you can trade copper in the last two weeks you are doing very well. It seems to be stuck in a downtrending channel. Currently a sell between 2.80 and 2.82.

ZSX18 – a similar pattern to Soybean Meal just a little more bullish.

ZMZ18 – starting to look pretty ugly, still not below the most recent low at 301 but the signs are not good.

ZOZ18 – a poorly executed trade. Did not enter my stop immediately on entering the trade and then delayed exiting. finally out at 288 after entering at 302.

RSX18 – Canola looking really negative, broke below the most recent low but possibly trying to bounce now.

DYZ18 – I’m not sure if this even will recover, gapping lower and then a small rally now but it is really looking weak. Feels like it could drop another 200 points relatively easy. Well I have to remind myself trading is the job of finding and then waiting for good risk reward opportunities, which this is not right now.

SIZ18 – I’m still getting a positive feeling from the price behaviour in spite of the strength of the US Dollar. Not sure how far it might rise but it is worth finding out.

VIX18 – still elevated and I’m still waiting for a rally in the NASDAQ, thinking that will lead the S&P higher. If the NASDAQ can’t rally I’d be surprised if the S&P can just because of the sentiment attached to the FAANG stocks.

#futures #commodityfutures #trading #tradingjournal

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