Trading Journal – 18th October

DXZ18 – still wondering if this is going higher.

GCZ18 – failed at 1233 and not sure where we are going now. 1214 is the midpoint of the breakout candle, so that will probably be my short term marker for direction.

KCZ18 – another interesting thing about the move down on coffee to the 98 area was it was more than 20% away from the 200 DMA. This was perhaps also another reason to buy on the reversion as previously I made money on oil with that reversion. I should build a matrix to show which markets are more than 18% away from the 200 DMA.

ZWZ18 – wheat is down at a point which i feel was similar to cocoa was before it went on a long run higher. The price has come down over a long time to the lows and then been trading sideways for a year or so. The long term lows show 500 as a good buy so perhaps a good one to go long.

CCZ18 – could be drifting lower again from here, another lower high and the target would appear to be 2000 on the downside.

SBH19 – typically a false break of the 200 DMA in a downtrend is around 6-7% through the level and that’s just where sugar is at the moment. Will be interesting to see if it pushes on from here. I’m leaning towards both coffee and sugar failing and coming lower on this first attempted break through the 200 DMA and testing the previous lows before trying to move higher again.

HGZ18 – looking soft. I might be wrong and it could definitely be consolidating but all the signs point to one more desperation rally towards 2.83 and then a move down through 2.60.

ZSX18 – price running into the 100 DMA is probably a good place to sell this at the moment with low risk and a lot of possible downside.

ZMZ18 – also looking soft. not close enough to the 100 DMA for me.

ZOZ18 – this is a challenge for oats. I’m long from 302 the price is right at the midpoint of the breakout candle from the 15th of October. A failure here would make me think the whole move is in danger. It is the confluence of a lot of moving averages which is what I am looking for in a big move.

RSX18 – looks like canola tried to go lower but failed and is now moving higher. so indecisive though. Nothing for me to do here.

DYZ18 – waiting for a rally to the 12200 area, then aim to get short again.

SIZ18 – I think this still has some way to come back before a down trend resumes.

VIV18 – I will look to get long again if the S&P 500 rallies further.

#futures #commodityfutures #trading #tradingjournal

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