Trading Journal – 12th September

DXZ18 – there’s a lot of volume into the December contract yesterday and can likely expect more today. The selling at 95 no doubt encourages a move lower. It is still not below the 40 day moving average by more than 50 points and the 15 day average by more than 70 points. The price is just hanging around at the moment. With all the emerging market fears it seems unlikely that the dollar would sell off much. The 100 DMA is approaching from below, currently at 93.63.

GCZ18 – Gold is basically trading sideways at the moment. From the lack of speed with which it has tried to push on and the general lack of urgency as it moves sideways, i’m waiting for something else to appear in the price action before I take a trade.
KCZ18 – Coffee is again approaching the 100 level and it could be a good opportunity to buy however at the same time it has been a long down trend and we could see the price punch through there’s nothing so I just need to make sure my stop is relatively tight. Previous low was 98.65 so truth be told I would prefer to try and buy some 100 on the expectation that it will rally back above the big figure.

ZWZ18 – the last 3 up days of more than 2.5% have been followed by a sell off which went for 4-5 sessions. The round figure at 500 could be the target again. the high at 532-6 is about 6 points away from current market and the sell offs from the last 3 patterns have been about 50 points, so the risk return is good. The price is also running into the 15 day moving average. This is one possible opportunity. Is it the best one? not sure. It’s not clear as the pattern has been repeated the last 3 times. Even in an uptrend however the price has returned to the midpoint. Update Wednesday – the price did sell off , nothing to do now, watch for a bit.

CCZ18 – Cocoa is presenting an interesting picture. I keep on thinking it’s going to sell off but it’s just holding in there with a slight downward bias. Nothing that gives me confidence to take a position though.

SBV18 – I need to have a closer look at sugar because I suspect at the 100 day moving average it will probably be good selling. I called the bounce but missed the move, now I need to be careful that I don’t chase the profits that I missed.

HGZ18 – Another day of sideways action in copper and similar to gold not really much to do until the price breaks below resistance, in this case 2.60.

ZSX18 – Soybeans I have sold off again from the 850 level with the price looking like it’s going to break below the most recent lows around 826. Might be willing to go short on that on the approach to 800.

ZMZ18 – The price of soybean meal did not even get to 324 and it has already started selling so perhaps I’ve missed this one but I will need another day or so of data to be sure.

ZOZ18 – A big selling day seems to confirm that the price will be heading lower and the downtrend resumes after a false break in early August.

RSX18 – Canola looks like it’s going to be resolved to the downside. With the price Target from here maybe 487.

so today’s opportunities are Canola and possibly coffee.

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