Trading Journal – 22nd August

DXU18 – US dollar index is at a very interesting juncture in price terms as it tried to go through 97, failed and then came straight back down to the 40 day moving average from which it has bounced well previously. I will probably trade the reaction to this level rather than the actual move itself because I honestly have no idea whether it’s going higher or lower but will wait for some sort of indication as to who is winning the battle.

GCZ18 – I really get the sense that gold will rally quite a bit from here but I don’t have any strong feelings where will be good place to get long. Certainly the price at 1175 has held relatively well. But if the price was down there would I really want to get long again? I’m not that confident the price action would be looking very good if the price got back down to those levels. If I go long from here recent history says that the price should sell off again. At current levels the price is not particularly extended in terms of its distance from the 200 day moving average. I would classify 15 to 20% as an extended distance which would warrant going long on a replacement probability. The last 5 sessions’ price action corresponds almost exactly to the rejection of the US dollar index from 97. And they are both now sitting at short term moving averages.

KCZ18 – I am literally just thinking with coffee how wide am I comfortable for my stop to be based on how high do I expect the price to rally from here. Price is currently at 101.25 and I would probably prefer to go long from somewhere around 100.50. I will see how tonight’s trading session goes as it might try and duck down below 100.

ZWZ18 – stopped out on wheat as well, this was a poor trade mainly because i changed my initial plan from taking the quick profit to hoping for a big winner. The price of wheat has come back down to the 100 day moving average and it’s hard to tell whether it’s going to stop here. It seem to bounce off at last time after breaking through on the 25th of July and now it’s back below that midpoint so I don’t think that’s a good indicator to go long. That’s a good indicator to go short because there should be quite a bit of Momentum to the downside back towards 500 from these levels. I don’t feel like there’s enough in my favour in this particular set up to justify taking it action so I’m just going to watch.

CCZ18 – I decided to go long Cocoa after the three weeks of consolidation between 2100 at the bottom of the range and at the top of the range, 2200. The price had broken out nicely on Tuesday’s session, and I think in the near term we will probably see more pressure to the upside. I put a stop in at 2225, my entry price was 2275.

SBV18 – I went long sugar yesterday at 10.10 with expectation that the price might rather up towards 10.50. However today that is not looking very likely with the price having come back over night it was my entry. The price is already traded through the 10.0 level recording a 9.99 yesterday however there was no real continuation from that level so I put my stop at 9.95.

HGU18 – I was stopped out at 2.70 on this one after I had to put my stop back in place as Interactive brokers platform was not registering the first stop i put in place. I still have my doubts about the ability of copper to sustain this rally however for now it is going through my stop so I will just sit and wait to see where it goes. The weakness in the US dollar could continue and it seems to be a similar pattern with gold and copper but they are basically just trading the inverse of the US dollar at the moment.

ZSX18 – Soybeans again failed at the 900 level and I would probably expect them to sell off from here back towards 850 if not below. I can’t really justify taking a 30 Point profit down to 850 as I would have to risk a stop above 900 in order to realistically get there I feel the risk reward just doesn’t make sense.

ZMZ18 – I’m definitely wondering now what is the ultimate direction that soybeans are going to be resolved into and the answer may be it’s just going to range trade sideways for a while. The bottom of the range is quite clearly 324 and the top side is 338 so unless we see some dramatic change in the next couple of sessions then it’s probably a buy as the next action at the bottom of that range.

ZOZ18 – I think that I have noticed we almost all the grains in the last few days is that if they can’t increase in price when the US dollar is falling by around 2% in for a 5 sessions then that’s a really negative sign. Oats are another one about that category and I would expect them to continue to trade Lower from here. To go down through the 200 day moving average but certainly in the short term I think the outlook is quite negative and this could be a decent little earner.

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