Trading journal – 8th August

DXU18 – dollar index is still hovering around 95 with the market currently looking like it will close just above that level and seemingly keeping the pressure on the upside for now. The 93.90 level seems to be the bottom of range at the moment but if it continues to fail at 95 is simply a matter of time before the market dips back down and attempts another downside break of 93.80.

KCU18 – coffee has attempted to push up through 110 in the last couple of sessions but so far the resistance is holding strong and I wouldn’t be surprised if 110 was a good level to sell with a target down again at 105 or at least to the recent low on the 2nd of August. No clear formation that I recognise at the moment so I’m still going to sit on the sidelines with this one.

ZWU18 – a partially buried candle occurred in Tuesday session with a long Upper tail below the recent high and also closing below the open however almost all the price action was above the midpoint of Mondays bullish candle and the price still closes at 568 compared to Monday’s low of 551. I’m going to sit on this one for now as there has been lots of extension into the upper end of the range in the last few days. My stop is currently 562.

SBV18 – the 15 day moving average has been a good selling point on sugar with the downtrend resuming many times after testing the resolve of sellers. No strong view on this for now. Watch and wait.

HGU18 – some more price action at the bottom end of the recent range. Not encouraging for the bulls but not decisive in favour of the bears so no trade generated by last night’s price action.

ZSQ18 – definitely looks like soybeans is building towards something. I’m tempted to buy at current levels however I’m not 100% convinced it’s a great idea so just going to watch for now. I can’t quite put my finger on what it is but maybe the entrance level or that it’s attempting to retake the high ground so quickly after the recent high but just doesn’t feel like now has the entry that I want. Probably more so because I’m a little far from the stop I wanted of 895.

ZMZ18 – soybean meal still holding on but doesn’t look as convincing as soybeans on the price action. The chart seems to show a steeper sell off and a weaker rally so far with last night’s less than encouraging upper shadow revealing the buyers are weaker than I thought. Far from a done deal yet but the most I can take out of it is a higher low and a close above the open. Sit and wait.

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