Trading journal – 4th August

DXU18 – the price pushed higher towards 95 and formed a doji candle just below the level. Still nothing to do except sit on this one for now and see how it responds to this level for the third time with the pressure to push through increasing as the two short term moving averages converge towards 95. If it doesn’t push through soon then the averages will make it very easy for the price too be below both of them and concerns will probably start to build.

KCU18 – still drifting so nothing to do but watch and wait.

ZWU18 – starting to make me a little bit nervous that we pushed so far through the high from May 29th and then closed back below it. For now I’m just sitting on my stuff which will probably get here shortly if the price doesn’t move higher for no loss period still is disappointing something which looks like a really bullish move has not pushed on with more strength. Also with the US dollar not really doing much in Friday’s session there’s not really any other explanation for the price weakness aside from the fact that there’s not enough support for this move.

SBV18 – sugar seems to have found a few buyers over the last two sessions but only as far as the 15 day moving average, below which it closed on Friday. The open interest in the October contract seems to be dropping quite sharply in the last couple of weeks so that could perhaps indicate that short sellers are lightening up having reached their Target at 10. It could also be a contract roll but I wonder if March 2019 is an appropriate substitute? I doubt it.

HGU18 – I had an issue with my copper long trade yesterday with the Interactive Brokers application not registering that the market had move down through my stop order . So I change the order which had a status of not filled to market sell order which then was filled immediately. Thinking I had closed out my position I found that I was actually short two contracts when I had wanted to be flat. Thinking the error had something to do with the order not filling I submitted a to a cancellation request which was rejected by Interactive Brokers. I thought it was a very poor experience and I’m pretty pissed off with them. I’ve lost about $2,000 as a result and it’s an expensive lesson to check my positions after an order has been completed. The price has made a higher low so far although it looks like it’s still in the process of turning higher again so we will have to wait and see whether it bounces back in a retracement or continues lower. Either way I have to close out my short copper position on Monday at the open.

ZSU18 – another positive sign for soybeans with a hammer candle being formed in the most recent round of selling after the high which was made on the 31st of July. The price has only come back gently after the move from 820 to 900 which would encourage me to think that there might be another leg to this rally yet. Ideal trade would be selling into strength somewhere around 930-950.

ZMZ18 – soybean meal is still looking slightly encouraging with the velocity of the sell off still relatively gentle in a similar manner to soybeans but perhaps a little less bullish. Soybean meal has posted a Morning Star candle of sorts where as soybeans posted a hammer candle. The good sign is that both of them are above the short-term moving average and only just below the 40 day moving average. I will look to sell on the approach to 350 and then possibly get short depending on the nature of the price action. If it’s volatile I’ll probably wait till it settles down but if it’s forming a gentle top then I will look to get short near the top of the sideways action.

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