Trading journal – Tuesday 24th of July

DXU18 – the price has again found support on the 40 day average which is a positive sign so at the moment it’s possible we could expect to see some more buying from here and the price drift higher.

KCU18 – coffee has rallied off the recent lows and is struggling to make a meaningful break through the 15 day moving average so it might just be another chance to sell but for now there is nothing there for me to act upon. I would expect more sideways consolidation in the near term.
ZWU18 – no resolution in my mind to the sideways confusion which has marked the movements of the last 7 months going back to February when it looked to be breaking higher and then broke down out of its uptrend on the 14th of June.
BLCM – exiting. Working my way out of my existing 2.7k of stock, not much volume last night, only managed to unload a small amount (100 shares). Have to cancel order and keep working it until completely out.
SBV18 – the 15 day moving average has only just caught up with the price although this is not really been a reliable indicator so I’m not planning to take any action based on that. As per the previous run from the 200 day moving average at around 15.46 the 15 day moving average can stay in a downtrend for quite sometime so no sense take any action here. The price is getting quite close to the April 1991 low of 10.87 (back adjusted). The next step after that would be 7.60 from August 1987. From that low the price rallied to 18.86. The other previous low before that was 8.28. So I would expect to be a buyer somewhere in that range and build into quite a large position.
HGU18 – more consolidation around 2.75 at the moment. Nothing major to do here, so open to political developments with president Trump focusing on international trade. Any sort of conciliatory rhetoric could see a sharp rally and that’s quite likely given how often Trump flips his position on subjects. A 50% retracement of the most recent move is around 3.0045. The 19% from the 200 DMA mean reversion rule could come into play here. I checked the details and 2.53 would be the 19% distance from the 200 DMA. Still given the consolidation, it might be worth buying some calls around 2.90 or 3.00, have to check the levels and cost depending on the time frame. I would expect them to be expensive given the recent sharp move lower. Couldn’t justify the option premium so instead I’ve just gone wrong the outright futures contract with a entry price of 2.7640 and an exit on stop of 2.7250.
ZSQ18 – I only just noticed that the price has moved more than 19% away from the 200 day moving average in so I could expect some further mean reversion from here and I will likely buy some 900 call options with a 30 day expiry I would guess. Should correct myself this is the August contract so the options will not be available and I need to look at the equivalent on the September contract. I can’t find anything appealing so I’m just going to sit on this one until the outright gets to a good level or the price drifts sideways for a while and the volatility drops a little
ZMZ18 – got a couple of positions that I wanted including a long at 324 in soybean meal I have a stop at 320 and they certainly a good chance I could get it but I just like to the school from here given the selling seems to have slowed a bit around these levels. Just feel like there’s been a long run down and I think in the short term the selling is probably a bit exhausted so with a good risk reward I feel like there’s a bit of upside here and my stop is relatively tired so happy to watch this one.

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