trading journal – 15th July 2018.

DXY – a less than encouraging sign from the Friday session on 13th July where the price rose up towards 95 and then failed. It was only the first approach in this particular rally after touching off support at the 40 DMA and all of this was swamped by the volume on the 14th of June rally. There were 88,000 contracts traded that day and the open near the low and close near the high all indicate the positive momentum should continue. Average daily volume is normally 25,000, so it was a pretty strong signal. No action required because it has not breached any support levels but something to keep an eye on. What is my exit level? perhaps time to consult the key levels website. They say the midpoint of the previous large volume bullish candle which is around 93.80.
KC – I’m glad I did not go long coffee after that series of lows around 118. The price continued lower there after failing to hold the break above 1.25 and has gone as far as 107. Price only looks to be continuing lower at the moment. Will be a huge bull market when it rallies but for now it is all one way traffic. The 200 DMA is very strongly down. The first and daily check on price direction should be the 200 DMA and it’s slope. strong downward sloping trend lines or upward sloping trend lines should not be doubted.
ZW – to my surprise wheat has weakened again and is struggling to move the 200 DMA higher. I have no fundamental basis for this view, just that the price seemed to be making a move higher and has faltered for now. Now has made a lower low below 480 from the late March lows and rallied back above, so the clear sign is there is no signal. Mixed price information means no trade because it’s just likely
BLCM – in the short term the moving averages all look like they are coming together. Although the last 3 days the price action was quite weak. It made a lower high around 8.60 and has since fallen back to 8.00. I should really be defining what is my exit point. Below the recent low is a definite out, about 7.40 or so, but that seems quite far away and unnecessarily negative (and costly). I would think if it drops below Friday’s low then that’s signal it cannot rally and I should exit. That is 7.88. If it rallies from here that would be a significant positive development and we simply have another higher low on 2nd July after the low of 30th April.
SB – Price has continued lower breaking below the 11 cent level after bouncing off the resistance at the 100 DMA, does not look good in the short term. Probably not a bad idea to take a short outright position at 10.96 with a stop above 11.30, small cost and clear defined entry pooint, trading with the trend.
HG – buy an option 1% OTM and i will get a larger return on my individual trade PLUS i have the opportunity to pyramid, which greatly enhances my results.
CL – i still have no confidence in the crude rally and expect it will be resolved to the downside. There was a big rally with strength from the 100 DMA which touched 75 and then sold off pretty hard. The price now has a job to get back above the midpoint of the sell off candle which comes in at 72.14. The underlying trend is still up and given what i’ve seen in the last few sessions with coffee, sugar and wheat I would be hesitant to bet against the trend.
GC – 1212 is the 50% retracement of the large move from 1045 to 1383 starting late last year and 1174 is the 61.8% retracement, so given last Friday’s close was 1239 there’s not really much to do in the short term.
ZS – again the main play here was to buy an option on the outright then pyramid outright positions into the move.
ZM – seems stalled at 326 right now. dangerous to go long and perhaps a little exposed to a covering rally to go short.

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